2023 is over. Looking back on the global mobile communications market this year, if I were asked to sum it up in one word, it would be - "accumulate and gain."

 

On the surface, it doesn‘t seem like anything big is going on. But in fact, under the calm lake surface, there are rough waves and storms.

Whether in the consumer Internet field or the industrial Internet field, communication networks are growing rapidly. There are more and more digital application scenarios surrounding the network, and network traffic is also increasing rapidly.

 

High-quality networks represented by 5G not only bring people a pleasant digital life experience, but also promote the digital transformation wave of the entire industry.

 

There is no proof for what we say, let‘s let the data speak for itself.

Not long ago, Ericsson released the latest "Ericsson Mobile Market Report (November 2023)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). Ericsson‘s report, released every six months, analyzes the current status and development of the global mobile market. The data is very detailed and is an important research reference for the ICT industry.

 

 

Next, based on my own observations and the data from the "Report", I will introduce the overall trends of the global mobile communications market in 2023, as well as the development of hot areas such as 5G, FWA, and the Internet of Things.

 

 

1 Global 5G: Steady growth with frequent highlights

Everyone should be relatively familiar with the development of 5G in China.

 

In 2019, China‘s 5G was officially launched for commercial use. After four years of development, we have achieved world-renowned achievements, ranking first in the world in terms of number of base stations and user scale.

 

Let‘s look at the global 5G development from a higher perspective.

 

According to the data provided by the Report:

Currently, about 280 operators around the world have launched 5G commercial services. In 2023, the number of global 5G subscriptions increased by nearly 600 million, and is expected to reach 1.6 billion by the end of the year, accounting for 18% of the total mobile subscriptions. By 2029, the number of global 5G contracts is expected to exceed 5.3 billion, accounting for 58%. By the end of 2023, global 5G population coverage will reach 45%, and is expected to increase to approximately 85% by 2029.

 

 

Based on these data, we can see that the development momentum of 5G is very strong and the penetration rate is constantly increasing.

Mobile Internet traffic-based services (games, videos, live broadcasts, etc.) have promoted people‘s demand for high-performance mobile phone connections. As the most advanced mobile communication technology standard at present, 5G has absolute advantages in spectrum efficiency, network indicators, etc., and is the first choice for global operators to build networks.

 

In addition to high speed, 5G‘s low latency, high reliability, large connection characteristics, and support for network slicing have strong appeal to the industry Internet market. Operators choose 5G to lay the foundation for exploring the government and enterprise markets, create new sources of revenue, and obtain more return on investment.

 

There are several details worthy of attention in the development wave of 5G.

 

First of all, 5G construction has accelerated significantly in economically underdeveloped areas.

 

5G network construction requires a large amount of investment. We have always believed that only economically developed countries and regions will actively build 5G. But in fact, according to data, the popularity of 5G in many economically underdeveloped areas is accelerating significantly.

Taking sub-Saharan Africa as an example, according to data from the "Report", the annual growth rate of 5G contracts in the region will reach 60% between 2023 and 2029.

 

 

In the context of tight funds and high inflation, the reason why the region is able to develop at such a high speed is because the demand from the user side is very strong.

 

The area is dominated by young people, the community is more vibrant, and it also contains huge economic development potential. They need digital technology to bridge the digital divide, which can not only activate economic and trade, but also improve deficiencies in education, medical care and other aspects.

 

The digital dividends brought by cutting-edge digital technologies such as 5G will greatly improve local living standards and maintain the stable development of the region. Therefore, it has received strong support from the local national government and provided financial and spectrum support.

Secondly, there is the strong rise of 5G FWA applications.

 

FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) services have been a growth highlight of the global mobile communications market in the past few years.

As an important supplement and substitute for wired optical fiber broadband, FWA can help operators quickly implement customer-oriented broadband business services. FWA based on 5G has greater improvements in bandwidth rate and capacity, and is more suitable for providing high-quality network connections to users in the region.

 

Many people even believe that FWA has become the most typical application scenario of 5G.

 

The data and opinions from the "Report" also fully illustrate the recognition of global operators‘ commercial value of FWA:

Currently, about 80% of mobile operators around the world have begun to provide FWA services. There are 121 operators providing 5G FWA services. Shipments of 5G FWA CPE are expected to increase by 86% in 2023, reaching 13.89 million units, accounting for more than 48% of total shipments.

It is expected that by the end of 2029, the number of FWA connections will increase to 330 million. Among them, nearly 85% is expected to come from 5G FWA.

 

 

Third, the trend of 5G deployment technology routes.

 

There are two significant technology trends in global 5G deployment. One is that the mid-frequency band has received increased attention, and the other is that the proportion of 5G SA networking has increased.

 

After several years of network construction verification, mid-band is considered to be the best choice for providing 5G experience. This frequency band not only has good coverage capabilities, but also has good network capacity, is more balanced, and is more in line with the needs of operators for network construction.

 

China‘s 5G mid-band network construction is a typical success story. Our country mainly relies on medium frequency and has achieved 95% population coverage.

 

Internationally, more and more operators are beginning to build 5G networks based on mid-band. By the end of 2023, global 5G mid-band population coverage will reach 30%.

 

In terms of 5G SA/NSA networking, the current global 5G network is mainly based on NSA (non-standalone) networking. Among the 280 5G operators in the world, only more than 40 operators have deployed or launched 5G SA (independent) networking in public networks.

 

NSA cannot fully leverage the advantages of 5G, including support for 5G native voice (VoNR), network slicing and other services. NSA is also far inferior to SA in terms of network resource control capabilities, including clear QoS and enhanced service customization capabilities.

 

In order to fully unleash the energy of 5G, global operators have begun to accelerate the transformation from NSA to SA. The overall proportion of 5G SA networks will increase significantly.

 

2 Cellular Internet of Things: The old and the new change, the landscape changes

 

Another highlight of the global mobile communications market in 2023 is the Internet of Things.

 

"Internet of Everything" is an important prerequisite for building a digital society. Only when the terminal has the ability to connect can it become a nerve ending node in the digital world, feeding back data and receiving control.

 

In the past few years, we have seen that with the support of various communication technologies, the number of global IoT connections has grown rapidly. In various fields such as smart homes, industrial manufacturing, transportation and logistics, energy and electricity, the Internet of Things plays an increasingly important role and creates huge value.

 

A large part of these connections come from cellular IoT connections, especially large-scale IoT technologies represented by NB-IoT/Cat-M.

These technologies feature low complexity, low cost, and long battery life, and are widely used around the world.

 

The "Report" shows that globally, 128 operators have deployed or launched NB-IoT commercial networks, and 60 have launched Cat-M. The total number of cellular IoT connections is expected to reach approximately 3 billion by the end of 2023.

 

 

As 2G/3G networks are gradually withdrawn globally, the proportion of global cellular IoT connection types will also change. The 3GPP R18 version is about to be officially frozen, and a new type of cellular IoT technology will be fully commercialized, which is lightweight 5G-RedCap.

 

RedCap has attracted a lot of attention over the past year. It has a connection rate close to LTE Cat.4, but has lower latency and higher energy and spectrum efficiency. In addition, it supports features such as enhanced positioning and network slicing, which are advantages that users in vertical industries value very much.

 

RedCap helps achieve a balance between costs and benefits. The "Report" also predicts that it will be fully commercialized in 2024 and be widely used in wearable devices, low-cost routers, cameras, high-end meters, FWA devices and other scenarios.

 

 

3 Green and low carbon: industry consensus and promising goals

 

The last trend I want to talk about is the green development of ICT infrastructure.

 

ICT infrastructure is the prerequisite for developing the digital economy and promoting digital transformation. We see the role these facilities play in enabling industrial upgrading, but we cannot ignore the carbon emission costs behind them.

 

Currently, the ICT industry consumes approximately 4% of global electricity during the use phase, equivalent to approximately 1.4% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020. In 2020, the ICT industry‘s carbon footprint was estimated at 763 million metric tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).

 

If we want humanity to develop in a sustainable way, we must pay attention to the carbon emissions issue in the ICT industry and strive to reduce our carbon footprint.

 

Fortunately, the ICT industry has already begun to take action. For example, further increase the proportion of renewable energy use, introduce more advanced technical standards, replace old high-energy-consuming technologies, adopt new energy-saving materials and technologies, etc.

 

These actions have effectively slowed down the growth of carbon emissions and reduced the carbon footprint of each ICT contract.

 

The "Report" gives an optimistic forecast for the carbon footprint of the ICT industry in 2030 - although overall electricity consumption will inevitably increase, carbon emissions will decrease. The goal of net-zero emissions is not unattainable, but very promising.

 

4 Last Words

All in all, we can see that the global mobile communications market is still developing at its own pace. The construction of 5G and other infrastructure is advancing in an orderly manner. The popularity and penetration rate of the Internet are also continuing to rise.

 

Network construction is a long-term process. When we build a good network, we are actually setting up a stage to serve applications and innovation. The continued evolution of 5G is bound to make this stage more perfect, thereby promoting the next wave of innovation.

 

Researching digital technology, promoting digital infrastructure, and developing digital applications is the long-term mission of the entire ICT industry, and it is also an arduous task. Looking towards 2024, what kind of excitement will the ICT industry bring? let us wait and see!

 

Highlight: if any DWDM solution to application, pls feel free to consult us, HTFuture, free to help client design DWDM solution configuration and cost quotation.